My group chose scenario 1.
Answer: We opted to try and trade with the Indians hoping to gain supplies. We have many children in our train and do not want to risk running out of supplies. Choosing this route can possibly hurt our train because these Indians might not be friendly and may feel in danger and try to attack us. However if we are very nice to these Indians maybe the will actually trade with us and not try and attack us. We possibly get more food and maybe some blankets or some other supplies that will help us along our journey.